Montreal Canadiens at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2026-02-04 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 1 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

WPG: 44.9%

MTL: 55.1%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.03

MTL: 3.45

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WPG at home vs MTL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	WPG 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-12-03	MTL 3 - 2 WPG	MTL	MTL
2025-01-28	MTL 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG
2024-12-14	WPG 4 - 2 MTL	WPG	WPG
2023-12-18	WPG 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	21	2	1.67
1	MTL	14	1	1.30
2	WPG	22	1	1.72
2	MTL	13	1	1.16
3	WPG	19	2	1.57
3	MTL	14	5	2.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 1 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.0 - 3.4