Montreal Canadiens at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions
2026-02-04 • Canada Life Centre
Winnipeg Jets 1 - 5 Montreal Canadiens
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WPG: 58.4%
MTL: 41.6%
Expected Goals
WPG: 3.28
MTL: 3.44
Total Goals
Median: 6.6
Over 5.5: 67%
Over 6.5: 51%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WPG
Connor Hellebuyck - 13-16-7 | 0.900 SV% | 2.79 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
| Stat | WPG | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.879 | 0.903 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.846 | 0.938 |
| GAA | 2.51 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WPG at home vs MTL: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | WPG 1 - 5 MTL | MTL | WPG |
| 2025-12-03 | MTL 3 - 2 WPG | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-01-28 | MTL 1 - 4 WPG | WPG | MTL |
| 2024-12-14 | WPG 4 - 2 MTL | WPG | WPG |
| 2023-12-18 | WPG 2 - 3 MTL | MTL | WPG |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16:26 | WPG | Goal |
| 1 | 06:07 | WPG | Goal |
| 2 | 06:44 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 05:28 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:46 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 10:57 | MTL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 58.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.7
Score Breakdown
Winnipeg Jets 1 - 5 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 3.3 - 3.4