St. Louis Blues at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-02-04 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 5 - 4 St. Louis Blues

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 58.7%

STL: 41.3%

Expected Goals

DAL: 4.83

STL: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Stat	DAL	STL
Season SV%	0.907	0.869
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	3.56

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	18	14	4	77.8%	2.63	2	-1.37
STL	Jordan Binnington	28	23	5	82.1%	3.70	5	-1.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • DAL at home vs STL: 8-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-02	DAL 0 - 4 STL	STL	STL
2026-02-04	DAL 5 - 4 STL	DAL	DAL
2026-01-27	STL 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	STL
2026-01-23	DAL 3 - 2 STL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-18	STL 3 - 1 DAL	STL	STL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	15	3	1.75
1	STL	7	0	0.83
2	DAL	18	2	1.62
2	STL	7	0	0.42
3	DAL	4	0	0.33
3	STL	13	2	1.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 7.8

Score Breakdown