Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-02-04 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 4 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 44.1%

EDM: 55.9%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.88

EDM: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 57%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Devin Cooley - 4-4-2 | 0.914 SV% | 2.40 GAA

EDM

Tristan Jarry - 12-3-1 | 0.906 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Stat	CGY	EDM
Season SV%	0.914	0.906
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	2.73

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Devin Cooley	39	36	3	92.3%	3.29	0	0.29
EDM	Tristan Jarry	25	21	4	84.0%	3.98	4	-0.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 48% • CGY at home vs EDM: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	CGY 4 - 3 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-27	CGY 3 - 2 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-23	EDM 5 - 1 CGY	EDM	CGY
2025-10-08	EDM 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	EDM
2025-03-29	EDM 3 - 2 CGY	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	16	0	1.27
1	EDM	12	0	1.05
2	CGY	15	0	0.74
2	EDM	17	0	1.15
3	CGY	17	4	1.97
3	EDM	17	0	1.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown