Vancouver Canucks at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-02-04 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 2 Vancouver Canucks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 63.9%

VAN: 36.1%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.35

VAN: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

Stat	VGK	VAN
Season SV%	0.895	0.885
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.50	3.41

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Akira Schmid	23	21	2	91.3%	1.38	0	-0.62
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	31	26	5	83.9%	3.75	3	-1.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • VGK at home vs VAN: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-04	VAN 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-04-07	VAN 1 - 2 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-30	VGK 4 - 2 VAN	VGK	VGK
2026-02-04	VGK 5 - 2 VAN	VGK	VGK
2025-04-16	VAN 1 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	11	0	0.84
1	VAN	12	0	0.39
2	VGK	15	2	1.59
2	VAN	12	0	0.66
3	VGK	18	1	1.32
3	VAN	9	0	0.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown