Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-02-05 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

BUF: 40.7%

PIT: 59.3%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.13

PIT: 3.53

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • BUF at home vs PIT: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	PIT 1 - 5 BUF	BUF	PIT
2026-02-05	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-26	PIT 4 - 2 BUF	PIT	PIT
2025-03-27	BUF 7 - 3 PIT	BUF	BUF
2025-01-17	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	15	1	0.95
1	PIT	13	0	0.90
2	BUF	18	0	1.15
2	PIT	8	1	0.85
3	BUF	16	1	1.36
3	PIT	22	5	3.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 3.5