Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2026-02-05 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 2 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins
🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 57.2%
PIT: 42.8%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.44
PIT: 3.27
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 65%
Over 6.5: 48%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 14-8-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.72 GAA
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 19-12-5 | 0.890 SV% | 2.79 GAA
| Stat | BUF | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.934 | 0.863 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.871 | 0.855 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.91 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • BUF at home vs PIT: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-05 | BUF 2 - 5 PIT | PIT | BUF |
| 2025-11-26 | PIT 4 - 2 BUF | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-03-27 | BUF 7 - 3 PIT | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-01-17 | BUF 2 - 5 PIT | PIT | BUF |
| 2024-10-16 | PIT 6 - 5 BUF | PIT | PIT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:46 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 09:18 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 18:47 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 07:44 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 01:55 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 15:33 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 19:46 | PIT | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.7
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 2 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected: 3.4 - 3.3