Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-02-05 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 1 Florida Panthers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 63.1%

FLA: 36.9%

Expected Goals

TBL: 4.06

FLA: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

FLA

Daniil Tarasov - 4-6-2 | 0.899 SV% | 2.96 GAA

Stat	TBL	FLA
Season SV%	0.913	0.899
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	2.96

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	34	33	1	97.1%	2.79	1	1.79
FLA	Daniil Tarasov	28	22	6	78.6%	2.11	1	-3.89

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • TBL at home vs FLA: 7-10

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	11	0	0.40
1	FLA	27	0	1.53
2	TBL	13	1	0.84
2	FLA	11	1	0.71
3	TBL	12	0	0.87
3	FLA	9	0	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown