Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-02-25 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 48.0%

PHI: 52.0%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.37

PHI: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • WSH at home vs PHI: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	WSH 6 - 4 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-03-11	PHI 4 - 1 WSH	PHI	PHI
2026-02-25	WSH 3 - 1 PHI	WSH	PHI
2026-02-03	PHI 4 - 2 WSH	PHI	PHI
2025-03-20	WSH 3 - 2 PHI	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	13	0	0.74
1	PHI	13	0	0.78
2	WSH	20	2	1.61
2	PHI	13	1	1.25
3	WSH	12	4	1.82
3	PHI	8	0	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.4 - 3.2