Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-02-25 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 49.6%

PHI: 50.4%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.24

PHI: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	WSH	PHI
Season SV%	0.913	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	24	23	1	95.8%	2.61	1	1.61
PHI	Dan Vladar	29	26	3	89.7%	4.17	6	1.17

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • WSH at home vs PHI: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	WSH 6 - 4 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-03-11	PHI 4 - 1 WSH	PHI	PHI
2026-02-25	WSH 3 - 1 PHI	WSH	PHI
2026-02-03	PHI 4 - 2 WSH	PHI	PHI
2025-03-20	WSH 3 - 2 PHI	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	13	0	0.74
1	PHI	13	0	0.78
2	WSH	20	2	1.61
2	PHI	13	1	1.25
3	WSH	12	4	1.82
3	PHI	8	0	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown