Colorado Avalanche at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2026-02-25 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 2 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

UTA: 45.1%

COL: 54.9%

Expected Goals

UTA: 2.91

COL: 3.51

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

Stat	UTA	COL
Season SV%	0.895	0.919
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.68	2.13

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	25	21	4	84.0%	2.79	4	-1.21
COL	Scott Wedgewood	30	28	2	93.3%	3.12	0	1.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 71% • UTA at home vs COL: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-25	UTA 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2025-12-23	COL 1 - 0 UTA	COL	COL
2025-10-21	UTA 4 - 3 COL	UTA	COL
2025-10-09	COL 2 - 1 UTA	COL	COL
2024-12-27	UTA 1 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	13	0	0.76
1	COL	14	2	1.05
2	UTA	14	0	1.25
2	COL	20	2	1.38
3	UTA	19	0	1.11
3	COL	5	0	0.36

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown