New York Islanders at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-02-26 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 New York Islanders (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 56.0%

NYI: 44.0%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.31

NYI: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • MTL at home vs NYI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	NYI 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	NYI
2026-03-21	MTL 7 - 3 NYI	MTL	MTL
2026-02-26	MTL 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	MTL
2025-03-20	NYI 4 - 3 MTL	NYI	MTL
2024-12-03	MTL 2 - 1 NYI	MTL	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	14	1	0.89
1	NYI	11	2	1.03
2	MTL	12	0	1.00
2	NYI	19	1	1.45
3	MTL	9	1	1.05
3	NYI	12	0	0.74
4	MTL	1	0	0.05
4	NYI	1	0	0.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1