Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-02-26 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 1 - 2 Detroit Red Wings (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (77% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 76.6%

DET: 23.4%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.62

DET: 2.50

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

Stat	OTT	DET
Season SV%	0.881	0.893
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.95	2.97

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	20	18	2	90.0%	1.52	0	-0.48
DET	John Gibson	27	26	1	96.3%	2.84	2	1.84

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs DET: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	DET 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-02-26	OTT 1 - 2 DET	DET	OTT
2026-01-18	DET 4 - 3 OTT	DET	OTT
2026-01-05	OTT 3 - 5 DET	DET	OTT
2025-03-27	DET 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	DET

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	22	0	1.28
1	DET	6	0	0.20
2	OTT	13	1	0.78
2	DET	13	0	0.67
3	OTT	9	1	0.77
3	DET	13	0	0.53
4	OTT	0	0	0.00
4	DET	1	0	0.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 76.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 1 - 2 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.6 - 2.5