Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-02-26 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 1 - 2 Detroit Red Wings (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (70% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 69.7%

DET: 30.3%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.55

DET: 2.70

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs DET: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	DET 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	DET
2026-02-26	OTT 1 - 2 DET	DET	OTT
2026-01-18	DET 4 - 3 OTT	DET	DET
2026-01-05	OTT 3 - 5 DET	DET	OTT
2025-03-27	DET 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	DET

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	22	0	1.28
1	DET	6	0	0.20
2	OTT	13	1	0.78
2	DET	13	0	0.67
3	OTT	9	1	0.77
3	DET	13	0	0.53
4	OTT	0	0	0.00
4	DET	1	0	0.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 69.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 1 - 2 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.5 - 2.7