Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-02-26 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 5 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 57.2%

MIN: 42.8%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.28

MIN: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Stat	COL	MIN
Season SV%	0.924	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.07	2.47

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	36	31	5	86.1%	5.49	6	0.49
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	47	45	2	95.7%	3.46	2	1.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • COL at home vs MIN: 9-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-13	COL 4 - 3 MIN	COL	COL
2026-05-11	MIN 2 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2026-05-09	MIN 5 - 1 COL	MIN	COL
2026-05-05	COL 5 - 2 MIN	COL	COL
2026-05-03	COL 9 - 6 MIN	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	21	1	1.33
1	MIN	16	1	1.28
2	COL	17	0	0.49
2	MIN	26	1	1.78
3	COL	29	1	1.63
3	MIN	10	4	2.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown