Calgary Flames at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2026-02-26 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 1 - 4 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 54.1%

CGY: 45.9%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.03

CGY: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • SJS at home vs CGY: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-26	SJS 1 - 4 CGY	CGY	SJS
2026-01-31	CGY 3 - 2 SJS	CGY	SJS
2025-12-16	SJS 6 - 3 CGY	SJS	CGY
2025-11-13	CGY 2 - 0 SJS	CGY	CGY
2025-04-13	CGY 5 - 2 SJS	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	19	1	1.29
1	CGY	10	0	0.53
2	SJS	14	0	1.05
2	CGY	13	0	1.08
3	SJS	12	1	0.90
3	CGY	16	2	1.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 1 - 4 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2