Buffalo Sabres at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2026-02-27 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

FLA: 56.4%

BUF: 43.6%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.51

BUF: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

FLA

Daniil Tarasov - 4-6-2 | 0.899 SV% | 2.96 GAA

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	FLA	BUF
Season SV%	0.899	0.906
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.96	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Daniil Tarasov	39	36	3	92.3%	4.73	6	1.73
BUF	Alex Lyon	30	28	2	93.3%	4.52	4	2.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • FLA at home vs BUF: 7-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-12	BUF 5 - 3 FLA	BUF	BUF
2026-02-27	FLA 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	FLA
2026-02-02	FLA 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-01-12	BUF 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-10-18	BUF 3 - 0 FLA	BUF	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	16	1	1.11
1	BUF	19	0	0.98
2	FLA	17	2	1.29
2	BUF	22	3	2.25
3	FLA	15	1	2.12
3	BUF	12	3	1.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown