Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2026-02-28 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (66% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 33.8%

PIT: 66.2%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.92

PIT: 3.52

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • NYR at home vs PIT: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	NYR 3 - 2 PIT	NYR	PIT
2026-01-31	PIT 6 - 5 NYR	PIT	PIT
2025-10-11	PIT 1 - 6 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-07	NYR 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-02-23	PIT 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	6	0	0.24
1	PIT	18	1	1.60
2	NYR	19	0	1.37
2	PIT	17	1	1.25
3	NYR	17	2	1.54
3	PIT	6	0	0.18
4	NYR	5	0	0.32
4	PIT	6	0	0.63
5	NYR	2	1	0.87
5	PIT	3	0	0.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 66.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 2.9 - 3.5