Edmonton Oilers at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2026-02-28 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 5 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (61% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 39.3%

EDM: 60.7%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.10

EDM: 3.69

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 53%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

EDM

Connor Ingram - 2-2-0 | 0.883 SV% | 3.28 GAA

Stat	SJS	EDM
Season SV%	0.896	0.883
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.36	3.28

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	24	20	4	83.3%	2.94	1	-1.06
EDM	Connor Ingram	33	28	5	84.8%	3.87	4	-1.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • SJS at home vs EDM: 2-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-10	SJS 1 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM
2026-04-08	SJS 2 - 5 EDM	EDM	SJS
2026-03-17	EDM 5 - 3 SJS	EDM	EDM
2026-02-28	SJS 5 - 4 EDM	SJS	EDM
2026-01-29	EDM 4 - 3 SJS	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	20	4	2.13
1	EDM	14	1	1.48
2	SJS	17	0	1.13
2	EDM	9	0	0.58
3	SJS	11	0	0.61
3	EDM	15	0	0.88

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown