Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-02-28 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 6 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (76% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 75.8%

BUF: 24.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 4.07

BUF: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TBL at home vs BUF: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-06	BUF 4 - 2 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-03-08	BUF 8 - 7 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-02-28	TBL 2 - 6 BUF	BUF	TBL
2026-02-03	TBL 4 - 3 BUF	TBL	TBL
2025-04-13	TBL 7 - 4 BUF	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	19	0	1.24
1	BUF	16	1	1.66
2	TBL	15	1	0.97
2	BUF	26	0	2.16
3	TBL	17	0	0.94
3	BUF	8	2	0.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 75.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 6 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 4.1 - 2.8