Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-03-01 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 0 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

PIT: 50.7%

VGK: 49.3%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.52

VGK: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs VGK: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	VGK 6 - 2 PIT	VGK	PIT
2026-03-01	PIT 5 - 0 VGK	PIT	PIT
2025-03-11	PIT 3 - 2 VGK	PIT	VGK
2025-03-07	VGK 4 - 0 PIT	VGK	VGK
2024-01-20	VGK 3 - 2 PIT	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	8	0	0.45
1	VGK	7	0	0.26
2	PIT	15	2	1.90
2	VGK	15	0	0.83
3	PIT	7	0	0.36
3	VGK	13	1	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 0 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9