Chicago Blackhawks at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2026-03-01 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 0 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

🚨 Upset Loss (82% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

UTA: 81.7%

CHI: 18.3%

Expected Goals

UTA: 4.03

CHI: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

CHI

Arvid Soderblom - 4-7-1 | 0.873 SV% | 4.02 GAA

Stat	UTA	CHI
Season SV%	0.895	0.873
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.68	4.02

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	28	24	4	85.7%	2.14	0	-1.86
CHI	Arvid Soderblom	22	22	0	100.0%	2.13	0	2.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • UTA at home vs CHI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-01	UTA 6 - 0 CHI	UTA	UTA
2026-03-12	UTA 2 - 3 CHI	CHI	UTA
2026-03-09	CHI 3 - 2 UTA	CHI	UTA
2026-03-01	UTA 0 - 4 CHI	CHI	UTA
2025-10-13	CHI 3 - 1 UTA	CHI	CHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	UTA	12	0.70
1	CHI	16	0.95
2	UTA	13	0.75
2	CHI	12	0.62
3	UTA	13	0.68
3	CHI	9	0.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 81.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown