St. Louis Blues at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2026-03-01 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 1 - 3 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (73% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 72.8%

STL: 27.2%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.21

STL: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

Stat	MIN	STL
Season SV%	0.912	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.47	2.87

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	24	21	3	87.5%	2.96	3	-0.04
STL	Joel Hofer	23	22	1	95.7%	2.38	0	1.38

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 46% • MIN at home vs STL: 4-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	STL 6 - 3 MIN	STL	STL
2026-03-01	MIN 1 - 3 STL	STL	MIN
2025-10-09	STL 0 - 5 MIN	MIN	MIN
2025-03-15	MIN 1 - 5 STL	STL	STL
2025-01-07	MIN 6 - 4 STL	MIN	MIN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	14	0	0.69
1	STL	15	0	0.41
2	MIN	20	0	1.36
2	STL	10	1	0.79
3	MIN	8	0	0.33
3	STL	14	2	1.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 72.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown