Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2026-03-01 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 3 - 2 Calgary Flames (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

ANA: 68.1%

CGY: 31.9%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.40

CGY: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

CGY

Devin Cooley - 4-4-2 | 0.914 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	ANA	CGY
Season SV%	0.888	0.914
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.15	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	36	33	3	91.7%	5.13	3	2.13
CGY	Devin Cooley	39	35	4	89.7%	5.87	5	1.87

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 57% • ANA at home vs CGY: 2-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	ANA 2 - 4 CGY	CGY	ANA
2026-10-10	CGY 2 - 4 ANA	ANA	CGY
2026-04-04	ANA 3 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY
2026-03-26	CGY 2 - 3 ANA	ANA	ANA
2026-03-01	ANA 3 - 2 CGY	ANA	ANA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	17	2	1.48
1	CGY	27	1	1.70
2	ANA	19	1	1.33
2	CGY	21	0	1.54
3	ANA	17	0	1.00
3	CGY	11	1	0.68
4	ANA	3	0	0.30
4	CGY	2	0	0.10
5	ANA	3	2	1.77
5	CGY	3	1	1.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 3 - 2 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0