Columbus Blue Jackets at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2026-03-02 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 4 - 5 Columbus Blue Jackets (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 40.5%

CBJ: 59.5%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.87

CBJ: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Stat	NYR	CBJ
Season SV%	0.910	0.877
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	4.04

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	29	24	5	82.8%	2.72	2	-2.28
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	33	29	4	87.9%	2.81	1	-1.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • NYR at home vs CBJ: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	CBJ 6 - 3 NYR	CBJ	CBJ
2026-03-02	NYR 4 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2025-11-15	CBJ 1 - 2 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-03-15	CBJ 0 - 4 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-03-09	NYR 3 - 7 CBJ	CBJ	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	7	0	0.18
1	CBJ	13	1	0.92
2	NYR	17	0	0.73
2	CBJ	11	1	1.20
3	NYR	22	1	1.91
3	CBJ	13	0	0.49
4	NYR	0	0	0.00
4	CBJ	1	0	0.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 4 - 5 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3