Detroit Red Wings at Nashville Predators NHL Predictions

2026-03-02 • Bridgestone Arena

Nashville Predators 2 - 4 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NSH: 59.4%

DET: 40.6%

Expected Goals

NSH: 3.26

DET: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

Stat	NSH	DET
Season SV%	0.897	0.893
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.93	2.97

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NSH	Juuse Saros	31	27	4	87.1%	4.02	4	0.02
DET	John Gibson	30	28	2	93.3%	3.20	1	1.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NSH at home vs DET: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	NSH 2 - 4 DET	DET	NSH
2025-11-26	DET 3 - 6 NSH	NSH	NSH
2024-10-19	NSH 2 - 5 DET	DET	NSH
2024-10-12	DET 3 - 0 NSH	DET	NSH
2024-03-23	NSH 1 - 0 DET	NSH	NSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NSH	17	0	0.84
1	DET	17	1	1.12
2	NSH	12	1	0.90
2	DET	19	2	1.48
3	NSH	22	0	1.46
3	DET	10	1	1.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown