Dallas Stars at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2026-03-02 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 1 - 6 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 50.8%

DAL: 49.2%

Expected Goals

VAN: 2.83

DAL: 3.66

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

Nikita Tolopilo - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Stat	VAN	DAL
Season SV%	0.000	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	0.00	2.57

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Nikita Tolopilo	37	31	6	83.8%	4.56	2	-1.44
DAL	Jake Oettinger	14	13	1	92.9%	1.43	1	0.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • VAN at home vs DAL: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	VAN 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	VAN
2025-11-20	VAN 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-16	DAL 3 - 5 VAN	VAN	VAN
2025-04-08	DAL 5 - 6 VAN	VAN	VAN
2025-03-09	VAN 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	VAN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	10	1	1.09
1	DAL	12	1	0.82
2	VAN	7	0	0.20
2	DAL	19	0	1.62
3	VAN	4	0	0.14
3	DAL	22	1	2.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown