Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-03-03 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 42.2%

VGK: 57.8%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.98

VGK: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

Stat	BUF	VGK
Season SV%	0.906	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.50

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Alex Lyon	29	27	2	93.1%	4.25	5	2.25
VGK	Akira Schmid	28	25	3	89.3%	3.74	3	0.74

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • BUF at home vs VGK: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-17	VGK 0 - 2 BUF	BUF	VGK
2026-03-03	BUF 3 - 2 VGK	BUF	VGK
2025-03-15	BUF 4 - 3 VGK	BUF	VGK
2025-01-04	VGK 3 - 1 BUF	VGK	VGK
2024-03-02	BUF 7 - 2 VGK	BUF	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	17	0	0.87
1	VGK	14	2	1.66
2	BUF	18	1	1.57
2	VGK	22	3	2.08
3	BUF	11	2	1.30
3	VGK	12	0	0.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown