Chicago Blackhawks at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2026-03-03 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WPG: 67.8%

CHI: 32.2%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.44

CHI: 2.76

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

Stat	WPG	CHI
Season SV%	0.907	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	2.63

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	20	18	2	90.0%	2.25	1	0.25
CHI	Spencer Knight	32	29	3	90.6%	2.34	0	-0.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • WPG at home vs CHI: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	CHI 3 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG
2026-03-03	WPG 3 - 2 CHI	WPG	WPG
2026-01-19	CHI 2 - 0 WPG	CHI	WPG
2025-10-30	WPG 6 - 3 CHI	WPG	WPG
2025-04-12	CHI 4 - 5 WPG	WPG	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	8	0	0.26
1	CHI	12	0	0.67
2	WPG	8	0	0.28
2	CHI	12	0	0.87
3	WPG	24	0	1.66
3	CHI	6	1	0.68
4	WPG	2	0	0.13
4	CHI	1	0	0.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8