Ottawa Senators at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-03-03 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 4 Ottawa Senators (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 49.7%

OTT: 50.3%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.59

OTT: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Connor Ingram - 2-2-0 | 0.883 SV% | 3.28 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Stat	EDM	OTT
Season SV%	0.883	0.881
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.28	2.95

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Connor Ingram	21	17	4	81.0%	2.29	0	-1.71
OTT	Linus Ullmark	37	32	5	86.5%	4.31	2	-0.69

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • EDM at home vs OTT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-03	EDM 5 - 4 OTT	EDM	OTT
2025-10-21	OTT 2 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM
2024-12-22	EDM 3 - 1 OTT	EDM	EDM
2024-11-19	OTT 2 - 5 EDM	EDM	OTT
2024-03-24	OTT 5 - 3 EDM	OTT	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	15	0	1.21
1	OTT	12	0	0.89
2	EDM	23	0	1.01
2	OTT	15	0	0.91
3	EDM	17	2	1.73
3	OTT	6	0	0.46
4	EDM	3	0	0.37
4	OTT	1	0	0.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.6 - 3.1