Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2026-03-03 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 5 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

MIN: 48.0%

TBL: 52.0%

Expected Goals

MIN: 2.98

TBL: 3.31

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MIN at home vs TBL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	TBL 6 - 3 MIN	TBL	TBL
2026-03-03	MIN 5 - 1 TBL	MIN	TBL
2024-11-01	MIN 5 - 3 TBL	MIN	MIN
2024-10-24	TBL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	TBL
2024-01-18	TBL 7 - 3 MIN	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	11	0	0.73
1	TBL	16	0	1.05
2	MIN	9	1	0.69
2	TBL	9	0	0.60
3	MIN	16	2	2.15
3	TBL	12	0	0.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 5 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3