Montreal Canadiens at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2026-03-03 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 7 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 42.3%

MTL: 57.7%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.83

MTL: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Stat	SJS	MTL
Season SV%	0.896	0.889
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.36	3.01

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	37	32	5	86.5%	3.60	0	-1.40
MTL	Jakub Dobes	28	21	7	75.0%	3.64	4	-3.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • SJS at home vs MTL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	MTL 2 - 4 SJS	SJS	MTL
2026-03-03	SJS 7 - 5 MTL	SJS	MTL
2025-02-27	MTL 4 - 3 SJS	MTL	MTL
2025-02-04	SJS 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	MTL
2024-01-11	MTL 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	MTL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	13	0	0.74
1	MTL	12	0	0.28
2	SJS	11	2	1.05
2	MTL	16	0	1.06
3	SJS	13	2	1.85
3	MTL	30	0	2.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown