Montreal Canadiens at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions
2026-03-03 • SAP Center at San Jose
San Jose Sharks 7 - 5 Montreal Canadiens
🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
SJS: 42.3%
MTL: 57.7%
Expected Goals
SJS: 2.97
MTL: 3.23
Total Goals
Median: 5.9
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 42%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
SJS
Yaroslav Askarov - 21-20-4 | 0.883 SV% | 3.63 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
| Stat | SJS | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.896 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.862 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.861 | 0.812 |
| GAA | 3.36 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • SJS at home vs MTL: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | MTL 2 - 4 SJS | SJS | MTL |
| 2026-03-03 | SJS 7 - 5 MTL | SJS | MTL |
| 2025-02-27 | MTL 4 - 3 SJS | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-02-04 | SJS 3 - 4 MTL | MTL | MTL |
| 2024-01-11 | MTL 2 - 3 SJS | SJS | MTL |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 12.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
San Jose Sharks 7 - 5 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 3.0 - 3.2
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