Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2026-03-04 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NJD: 54.1%

TOR: 45.9%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.17

TOR: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Stat	NJD	TOR
Season SV%	0.884	0.884
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.32	3.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	29	26	3	89.7%	2.93	1	-0.07
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	49	44	5	89.8%	6.71	5	1.71

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • NJD at home vs TOR: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	NJD 4 - 3 TOR	NJD	NJD
2025-12-30	TOR 4 - 0 NJD	TOR	NJD
2025-10-21	TOR 2 - 5 NJD	NJD	TOR
2025-01-16	TOR 4 - 3 NJD	TOR	NJD
2024-12-10	NJD 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	17	0	1.23
1	TOR	16	0	1.07
2	NJD	21	2	2.04
2	TOR	12	0	0.73
3	NJD	26	1	1.45
3	TOR	9	1	0.71
4	NJD	4	0	0.39
4	TOR	3	0	0.26
5	NJD	2	2	1.59
5	TOR	2	0	0.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0