Utah Hockey Club at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-03-05 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 0 - 3 Utah Hockey Club

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 51.1%

UTA: 48.9%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.02

UTA: 3.28

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

UTA

Vitek Vanecek - 2-9-1 | 0.879 SV% | 2.92 GAA

Stat	PHI	UTA
Season SV%	0.910	0.879
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	2.92

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Dan Vladar	23	20	3	87.0%	3.84	3	0.84
UTA	Vitek Vanecek	16	16	0	100.0%	1.78	1	1.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • PHI at home vs UTA: 0-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	PHI 0 - 3 UTA	UTA	PHI
2026-01-21	UTA 5 - 4 PHI	UTA	UTA
2025-02-04	UTA 3 - 2 PHI	UTA	UTA
2024-12-08	PHI 2 - 4 UTA	UTA	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	6	0	0.25
1	UTA	9	0	0.27
2	PHI	12	0	0.97
2	UTA	15	0	0.94
3	PHI	8	1	0.56
3	UTA	16	3	2.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown