Vancouver Canucks at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2026-03-06 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 3 - 6 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CHI: 59.1%

VAN: 40.9%

Expected Goals

CHI: 3.68

VAN: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CHI

Arvid Soderblom - 4-7-1 | 0.873 SV% | 4.02 GAA

VAN

Nikita Tolopilo - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Stat	CHI	VAN
Season SV%	0.873	0.000
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	4.02	0.00

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Arvid Soderblom	22	16	6	72.7%	2.95	3	-3.05
VAN	Nikita Tolopilo	23	20	3	87.0%	3.50	4	0.50

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • CHI at home vs VAN: 0-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-06	CHI 3 - 6 VAN	VAN	CHI
2025-11-05	VAN 2 - 5 CHI	CHI	VAN
2025-10-17	CHI 2 - 3 VAN	VAN	CHI
2025-03-15	VAN 6 - 2 CHI	VAN	VAN
2024-11-16	VAN 4 - 1 CHI	VAN	VAN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	12	2	1.09
1	VAN	10	0	0.91
2	CHI	19	1	1.36
2	VAN	10	0	0.28
3	CHI	13	1	1.05
3	VAN	13	3	1.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown