Carolina Hurricanes at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-03-06 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 6 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 51.3%

CAR: 48.7%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.21

CAR: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Tristan Jarry - 12-3-1 | 0.906 SV% | 2.73 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Stat	EDM	CAR
Season SV%	0.906	0.865
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.73	3.38

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Tristan Jarry	32	26	6	81.2%	3.43	2	-2.57
CAR	Frederik Andersen	16	13	3	81.2%	2.13	1	-0.87

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • EDM at home vs CAR: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-06	EDM 3 - 6 CAR	CAR	EDM
2025-11-15	CAR 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	CAR
2025-03-01	CAR 1 - 3 EDM	EDM	CAR
2024-10-22	EDM 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2023-12-06	EDM 6 - 1 CAR	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	5	0	0.37
1	CAR	15	1	0.83
2	EDM	16	0	1.15
2	CAR	22	0	1.09
3	EDM	6	1	0.61
3	CAR	12	1	1.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown