Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-03-06 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 4 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 63.6%

MIN: 36.4%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.45

MIN: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • VGK at home vs MIN: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-06	VGK 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-12-29	VGK 2 - 5 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-11-16	MIN 3 - 2 VGK	MIN	MIN
2025-05-01	MIN 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-29	VGK 3 - 2 MIN	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	11	0	0.55
1	MIN	15	0	0.88
2	VGK	18	1	1.27
2	MIN	11	0	0.68
3	VGK	21	0	1.38
3	MIN	15	2	1.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 4 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9