St. Louis Blues at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2026-03-06 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 2 - 3 St. Louis Blues (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 56.5%

STL: 43.5%

Expected Goals

SJS: 4.02

STL: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Stat	SJS	STL
Season SV%	0.895	0.869
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.06	3.56

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	14	11	3	78.6%	2.41	3	-0.59
STL	Jordan Binnington	25	23	2	92.0%	2.34	1	0.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • SJS at home vs STL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-30	SJS 5 - 4 STL	SJS	SJS
2026-03-26	STL 2 - 1 SJS	STL	SJS
2026-03-06	SJS 2 - 3 STL	STL	SJS
2024-12-12	STL 3 - 4 SJS	SJS	STL
2024-11-21	STL 3 - 2 SJS	STL	STL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	14	1	0.73
1	STL	6	0	0.65
2	SJS	15	0	0.79
2	STL	13	2	1.46
3	SJS	11	0	0.81
3	STL	1	0	0.02
4	SJS	0	0	0.00
4	STL	2	1	0.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 2 - 3 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 4.0 - 3.1