Washington Capitals at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2026-03-07 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 3 - 1 Washington Capitals

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 52.3%

WSH: 47.7%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.30

WSH: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Stat	BOS	WSH
Season SV%	0.903	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.84	2.39

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	23	22	1	95.7%	3.30	3	2.30
WSH	Logan Thompson	30	27	3	90.0%	4.21	5	1.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BOS at home vs WSH: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	WSH 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	WSH
2026-03-07	BOS 3 - 1 WSH	BOS	BOS
2025-10-08	WSH 1 - 3 BOS	BOS	WSH
2025-04-01	BOS 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-12-31	WSH 3 - 1 BOS	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	11	2	1.13
1	WSH	14	2	1.01
2	BOS	19	1	1.30
2	WSH	17	1	1.76
3	BOS	17	2	1.78
3	WSH	9	0	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown