Nashville Predators at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-03-07 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Nashville Predators

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 49.1%

NSH: 50.9%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.12

NSH: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Stat	BUF	NSH
Season SV%	0.906	0.897
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.93

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Alex Lyon	25	23	2	92.0%	3.13	2	1.13
NSH	Juuse Saros	24	21	3	87.5%	3.28	4	0.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • BUF at home vs NSH: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	BUF 3 - 2 NSH	BUF	NSH
2026-01-20	NSH 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	NSH
2025-02-08	NSH 6 - 4 BUF	NSH	NSH
2025-01-31	BUF 4 - 3 NSH	BUF	NSH
2024-03-07	NSH 4 - 2 BUF	NSH	NSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	9	0	0.29
1	NSH	10	0	0.47
2	BUF	20	2	1.96
2	NSH	14	1	1.11
3	BUF	14	2	1.04
3	NSH	16	1	1.55

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown