Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-03-07 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 55.3%

PHI: 44.7%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.56

PHI: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 12-11-4 | 0.888 SV% | 2.91 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	PIT	PHI
Season SV%	0.888	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.91	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Stuart Skinner	18	14	4	77.8%	3.07	2	-0.93
PHI	Dan Vladar	26	23	3	88.5%	3.23	0	0.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • PIT at home vs PHI: 9-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-30	PHI 0 - 7 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-04-29	PHI 1 - 0 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-27	PIT 3 - 2 PHI	PIT	PIT
2026-04-25	PHI 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PHI
2026-04-22	PHI 5 - 2 PIT	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	12	0	0.76
1	PHI	8	0	0.44
2	PIT	12	0	0.75
2	PHI	16	0	1.16
3	PIT	15	0	1.06
3	PHI	7	0	0.24
4	PIT	7	0	0.46
4	PHI	2	1	0.23
5	PIT	3	0	0.21
5	PHI	2	1	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.6 - 3.2