Boston Bruins at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-03-08 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 4 Boston Bruins (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 64.2%

BOS: 35.8%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.40

BOS: 2.70

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

Stat	PIT	BOS
Season SV%	0.886	0.882
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.20	3.60

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Arturs Silovs	28	24	4	85.7%	2.79	0	-1.21
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	40	35	5	87.5%	3.79	2	-1.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • PIT at home vs BOS: 2-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-08	PIT 5 - 4 BOS	PIT	PIT
2026-03-03	BOS 2 - 1 PIT	BOS	BOS
2026-01-11	BOS 1 - 0 PIT	BOS	BOS
2025-04-13	PIT 1 - 4 BOS	BOS	PIT
2025-03-01	PIT 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	18	1	0.96
1	BOS	15	0	1.13
2	PIT	18	1	1.45
2	BOS	10	0	0.62
3	PIT	20	0	1.18
3	BOS	16	0	1.03
4	PIT	1	0	0.20
4	BOS	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 4 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7