Detroit Red Wings at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2026-03-08 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 0 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NJD: 56.1%

DET: 43.9%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.05

DET: 2.55

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

Stat	NJD	DET
Season SV%	0.884	0.893
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.32	2.97

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	30	27	3	90.0%	2.50	0	-0.50
DET	John Gibson	31	31	0	100.0%	2.23	0	2.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NJD at home vs DET: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	DET 3 - 5 NJD	NJD	DET
2026-03-08	NJD 0 - 3 DET	DET	NJD
2025-11-24	NJD 4 - 3 DET	NJD	NJD
2025-04-16	NJD 2 - 5 DET	DET	NJD
2024-11-29	DET 4 - 5 NJD	NJD	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	NJD	14	0.72
1	DET	19	1.33
2	NJD	18	1.06
2	DET	11	0.48
3	NJD	13	0.46
3	DET	14	0.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown