New York Rangers at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-03-09 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 6 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 55.5%

NYR: 44.5%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.92

NYR: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	PHI	NYR
Season SV%	0.910	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Dan Vladar	27	21	6	77.8%	3.24	4	-2.76
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	34	32	2	94.1%	3.66	2	1.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • PHI at home vs NYR: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-09	PHI 2 - 6 NYR	NYR	PHI
2026-02-26	NYR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	NYR
2026-01-17	PHI 3 - 6 NYR	NYR	PHI
2025-12-20	NYR 5 - 4 PHI	NYR	NYR
2025-04-09	NYR 5 - 8 PHI	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	12	0	0.73
1	NYR	13	2	1.52
2	PHI	16	1	1.81
2	NYR	17	2	1.59
3	PHI	20	1	1.12
3	NYR	4	0	0.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown