Calgary Flames at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-03-09 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 7 - 3 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

WSH: 60.3%

CGY: 39.7%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.17

CGY: 2.73

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs CGY: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-09	WSH 7 - 3 CGY	WSH	WSH
2026-01-23	CGY 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-02-25	WSH 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	CGY
2025-01-28	CGY 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	CGY
2024-03-18	CGY 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	16	2	1.62
1	CGY	13	0	0.37
2	WSH	12	1	1.03
2	CGY	23	6	2.70
3	WSH	16	2	2.00
3	CGY	9	0	0.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 7 - 3 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.2 - 2.7