Calgary Flames at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2026-03-10 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 4 - 0 Calgary Flames

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 53.2%

CGY: 46.8%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.73

CGY: 2.77

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Jonathan Quick - 3-6-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.11 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	NYR	CGY
Season SV%	0.924	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.11	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Jonathan Quick	21	21	0	100.0%	2.40	2	2.40
CGY	Dustin Wolf	29	25	4	86.2%	3.00	0	-1.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • NYR at home vs CGY: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	NYR 4 - 0 CGY	NYR	NYR
2025-10-26	CGY 5 - 1 NYR	CGY	CGY
2025-03-18	NYR 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	NYR
2024-11-21	CGY 3 - 2 NYR	CGY	CGY
2024-02-12	NYR 2 - 0 CGY	NYR	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	13	0	0.59
1	CGY	13	1	1.11
2	NYR	20	0	1.54
2	CGY	17	0	0.69
3	NYR	12	0	0.88
3	CGY	7	1	0.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown