Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-03-10 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 2 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 45.1%

VGK: 54.9%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.72

VGK: 3.34

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Stat	DAL	VGK
Season SV%	0.907	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	2.73

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	27	26	1	96.3%	2.09	0	1.09
VGK	Adin Hill	16	14	2	87.5%	3.56	4	1.56

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 46% • DAL at home vs VGK: 7-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	DAL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-10	DAL 2 - 1 VGK	DAL	VGK
2026-01-29	VGK 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-28	VGK 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-24	DAL 4 - 3 VGK	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	8	1	0.67
1	VGK	6	0	0.16
2	DAL	15	2	1.97
2	VGK	15	0	0.97
3	DAL	6	1	0.93
3	VGK	16	0	0.95

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown