Washington Capitals at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-03-12 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 2 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 61.5%

WSH: 38.5%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.31

WSH: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • BUF at home vs WSH: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	WSH 6 - 2 BUF	WSH	BUF
2026-03-12	BUF 1 - 2 WSH	WSH	BUF
2025-11-01	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	BUF
2025-03-30	WSH 5 - 8 BUF	BUF	WSH
2025-01-06	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	24	0	1.58
1	WSH	8	0	0.20
2	BUF	14	0	0.62
2	WSH	11	0	0.64
3	BUF	12	0	0.79
3	WSH	21	3	2.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 2 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0