Anaheim Ducks at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-03-12 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 4 Anaheim Ducks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 52.0%

ANA: 48.0%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.13

ANA: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Stat	TOR	ANA
Season SV%	0.914	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.74	3.15

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	40	36	4	90.0%	5.22	6	1.22
ANA	Lukas Dostal	28	22	6	78.6%	4.06	2	-1.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs ANA: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-30	ANA 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	ANA
2026-03-12	TOR 6 - 4 ANA	TOR	TOR
2025-03-30	ANA 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	ANA
2024-12-12	TOR 3 - 2 ANA	TOR	TOR
2024-02-17	TOR 9 - 2 ANA	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	1	1.15
1	ANA	31	5	3.11
2	TOR	16	0	1.33
2	ANA	14	0	0.70
3	TOR	14	1	1.58
3	ANA	17	1	1.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown