Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-03-12 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

TBL: 65.8%

DET: 34.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.55

DET: 2.67

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TBL at home vs DET: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TBL 4 - 3 DET	TBL	TBL
2026-03-12	TBL 4 - 1 DET	TBL	TBL
2025-11-28	DET 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-17	DET 2 - 1 TBL	DET	DET
2025-04-11	TBL 3 - 4 DET	DET	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	15	0	0.61
1	DET	10	0	0.30
2	TBL	19	0	1.06
2	DET	20	1	1.53
3	TBL	15	3	2.42
3	DET	12	0	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.5 - 2.7