Calgary Flames at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2026-03-12 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 4 - 5 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NJD: 64.3%

CGY: 35.7%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.41

CGY: 2.73

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	NJD	CGY
Season SV%	0.884	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.32	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	29	24	5	82.8%	2.51	1	-2.49
CGY	Dustin Wolf	32	28	4	87.5%	3.90	2	-0.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 17% • NJD at home vs CGY: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	NJD 4 - 5 CGY	CGY	NJD
2026-01-19	CGY 1 - 2 NJD	NJD	CGY
2025-03-20	NJD 3 - 5 CGY	CGY	NJD
2024-11-01	CGY 3 - 0 NJD	CGY	NJD
2024-02-08	NJD 3 - 5 CGY	CGY	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	13	0	0.94
1	CGY	11	0	0.62
2	NJD	16	1	1.21
2	CGY	14	1	1.55
3	NJD	27	1	1.75
3	CGY	9	0	0.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown