Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-03-12 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 7 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

Win Probability

DAL: 53.1%

EDM: 46.9%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.65

EDM: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • DAL at home vs EDM: 6-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	DAL 7 - 2 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-11-25	EDM 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	EDM
2025-11-04	DAL 4 - 3 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-05-29	DAL 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-05-27	EDM 4 - 1 DAL	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	15	1	0.80
1	EDM	6	1	0.32
2	DAL	12	2	1.43
2	EDM	16	0	1.09
3	DAL	9	2	1.09
3	EDM	22	3	1.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 7 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.6 - 3.0