Chicago Blackhawks at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2026-03-12 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 2 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (72% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

UTA: 72.2%

CHI: 27.8%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.18

CHI: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

Stat	UTA	CHI
Season SV%	0.895	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.68	2.63

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	23	20	3	87.0%	2.61	3	-0.39
CHI	Spencer Knight	31	29	2	93.5%	4.71	5	2.71

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • UTA at home vs CHI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-01	UTA 6 - 0 CHI	UTA	UTA
2026-03-12	UTA 2 - 3 CHI	CHI	UTA
2026-03-09	CHI 3 - 2 UTA	CHI	UTA
2026-03-01	UTA 0 - 4 CHI	CHI	UTA
2025-10-13	CHI 3 - 1 UTA	CHI	CHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	12	0	0.50
1	CHI	5	0	0.35
2	UTA	15	2	1.38
2	CHI	11	0	0.51
3	UTA	25	2	1.99
3	CHI	11	2	1.10
4	UTA	6	1	0.84
4	CHI	4	1	0.65

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 72.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Utah Hockey Club 2 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8