Nashville Predators at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2026-03-12 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 4 - 3 Nashville Predators (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 48.6%

NSH: 51.4%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.19

NSH: 3.56

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

Nikita Tolopilo - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Stat	VAN	NSH
Season SV%	0.000	0.897
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	0.00	2.93

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Nikita Tolopilo	20	17	3	85.0%	2.13	0	-0.87
NSH	Juuse Saros	30	26	4	86.7%	5.45	5	1.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 43% • VAN at home vs NSH: 4-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	VAN 4 - 3 NSH	VAN	NSH
2025-11-03	NSH 4 - 5 VAN	VAN	NSH
2025-10-23	NSH 2 - 1 VAN	NSH	NSH
2025-01-29	NSH 1 - 3 VAN	VAN	NSH
2025-01-03	VAN 0 - 3 NSH	NSH	NSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	20	2	1.87
1	NSH	6	0	0.35
2	VAN	9	1	0.73
2	NSH	16	0	0.87
3	VAN	17	1	1.44
3	NSH	6	0	0.47
4	VAN	3	0	0.40
4	NSH	3	0	0.22
5	VAN	3	1	1.02
5	NSH	3	0	0.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 4 - 3 Nashville Predators

Expected: 3.2 - 3.6